The climate crisis is increasingly recognized as an obstacle to peace and stability, especially in fragile contexts. Research has highlighted how the impacts of climate change can aggravate existing fragility, increasing the likelihood of population displacement, food insecurity, international conflicts over water, instability in export-dependent countries fossil fuels and fragility in megacities, among other risks. At the same time, effective multilateral action to reduce emissions and manage the cascading effects of climate change impacts can help mitigate the consequences of the climate crisis for global peace, stability and human security. We have a choice, or rather several choices.
This report, Seven Questions for the G7.
The Climate Fragility Risk Superforecast for the Next Decade addresses these dimensions of climate-related fragility to highlight key areas requiring continued attention from policymakers over the next decade. This is the first report of its kind that applies a superforecasting methodology to climate-related risks to peace and stability. It was commissioned by the climate security initiative supported by multilateral bodies Weathering Risk. The forecasts were produced by Good Judgement, the world’s most accurate geopolitical and global risk forecasting entity. The recommended policy actions have been proposed by adelphi, Europe’s leading independent think tank on climate, environment and development.
Using specific forecasting metrics, Superforecasters were asked to answer seven questions about climate-related risks over the next decade to 2031:
1) How effective will multilateralism be in the next decade, particularly around the global climate regime?
2) To what extent will climate change strengthen international solidarity?
3) How and where will climate change fuel instability in the world’s fragile environments?
4) To what extent and where will food prices fuel instability in fragile settings around the world?
5) As the impacts of climate change intensify, where and to what extent will megacities in low- and lower-middle-income countries become more fragile?
6) Where will pressures on water governance increase security risks?
7) Will oil-producing countries remain stable in a decarbonizing global economy?
Taken together, the Superforecasters’ predictions paint an alarming picture of the world in 2031: our planet will (still) be on track for disastrous global warming by the end of this century, with insufficient funding available for adaptation or climate change. effective mitigation. Climate change will increasingly contribute to population displacement, the increased fragility of megacities and soaring food prices. It will also accelerate factors that could contribute to instability in countries dependent on fossil fuel exports and conflict between countries sharing river systems.
However, such results are far from inevitable. Policymakers’ action in these risky areas can avert the worst consequences. If they leverage their power, lead by example, and engage partners constructively, G7 countries have the power to alter two key variables that have informed the Superforecasters’ analysis. First, the risks of fragility associated with climate change need to receive more attention from policymakers and peace and development programmers, in order to reduce the negative cascading effects on the stability of economies and societies that climate change climate that we can no longer avoid implies. Second, climate action must be commensurate with our collective interest in avoiding and preventing climate change as much as possible. Changing these two factors can change the future. Conversely, continued insufficient action on the climate crisis will lead to an even more pessimistic scenario for the future.
In response to the seven questions set out above, the Superforecasters came to these key conclusions:
In November 2021, the Climate Action Tracker (CAT) predicted global warming of 2.7°C above pre-industrial levels by 2100. Superforecasters see an 84% chance that by 2031 the CAT’s forecast of this same metric are above 2.2°C for the year 2100. In other words, the Superforecasters expect insufficient climate action until 2030 or even 2040 at least.
While an increase in climate finance can be expected over the next ten years, it will likely remain insufficient to meet growing needs.
Regardless of the exact level of warming at the end of the century, Superforecasters expect climate change to contribute significantly to global instability over the next decade, especially in already fragile contexts.
While Superforecasters don’t expect world food prices to rise dramatically by 2031 due to adaptation and technological developments, many predict at least one major price spike. food over the next decade due to the increasing frequency of extreme weather events and the possibility of trade. restrictions when crops fail.
Superforecasters predict that it is more likely than not that a majority of megacities in low- and lower-middle-income countries will be more fragile in 2031 than they were in 2015, as they suffer from pre-existing fragility , have infrastructure gaps and are vulnerable to the adverse effects of climate change.
A majority of Superforecasters expect there will be no deadly interstate conflict explicitly related to water in the countries studied before 2032. This forecast does not necessarily imply that incidents of violence in and between these countries will not take place during this period, but that the Superforecasters believe that countries are unlikely to use water as a direct justification for conflict.
Superforecasters believe the world will not wean off oil fast enough for decarbonization to destabilize major oil exporters in the next decade.
Instead, they expect the growing global middle class to increase our collective dependence on fossil fuels.
The predictions and commentary from the Superforecasters in this report shed light on the key indicators policymakers should watch over the next decade. They also involve specific actions that must be taken now to reduce future risks. Working with partner governments, businesses, researchers and civil society, G7 countries should:
develop accountability mechanisms on multilateral climate action;
delivering on climate finance pledges to help fragile and poorer countries cope with the effects of climate change, as well as increasing the scale of the commitment by $100 billion;
Mainstream climate security work more systematically across the development, humanitarian and peacebuilding sectors and advocate for the integration of climate change impacts on security into fora, institutions, multilateral strategies, policies and programs;
help ensure sustainable, inclusive and resilient food supply chains, invest in climate-smart agriculture and advocate for actions to transform agri-food systems towards green and climate-resilient practices;
champion and invest in climate-smart programs for urban centers to help cities build their climate resilience and achieve their climate adaptation ambitions;
redouble efforts to build and strengthen transboundary institutions that can promote joint assessment, planning and risk management of shared waters, particularly with a view to adapting and building resilience to the impacts of climate change and the uncertainty associated therewith;
seek to engage partners in countries dependent on fossil fuel exports to chart scalable pathways that limit the destabilizing effects of the energy transition, including by facilitating new forms of energy cooperation around renewables and hydrogen ( green).
A comprehensive set of recommendations from adelphi’s experts is included at the end of this report.