Global recovery still faces risks, ASEAN-6 economies mostly progress

The Southeast Asian Iron and Steel Institute (SEAISI) commented on the current situation of global economies, saying that governments are trying to revive their stalled economies, although the risks to the global recovery outweigh the gains of efforts to restore economies. at pre-pandemic levels.

Regarding demand and supply, SAISI said that as the global recovery continues, the rise in demand for goods and services has exceeded supply. This led to a spike in prices, especially energy and commodity prices.

While the recovery of the global economy is facing obstacles due to imbalances between supply and demand, the war between Russia and Ukraine has further exacerbated the situation. Sanctions on raw materials from Russia and the impact of the war on Ukrainian sectors have worsened the energy and fuel supply chain, and have also affected industries that depend on the two countries for metals and rare gases.

The global economy continues to be affected by China’s shutdowns in major cities and ports, disrupting supplies.

Also, many countries raise interest rates to fight inflation. But rising interest rates are increasing business costs, which will slow the global economic recovery.

SAISI also shared the gross domestic product (GDP) data of ASEAN-6 countries for the first quarter of this year, and economic growth forecasts for 2022.

Countries

GDP growth in Q4 2021 (%)

Q1 2022 GDP growth (%)

Growth forecast 2022 (%)

Indonesia

5.0

5.0

4.5-5.3

Malaysia

3.6

5.0

5.3-6.3

Philippines

7.7

8.3

7.0-8.0

Singapore

6.1

3.7

3.0-5.0

Thailand

1.9

2.2

2.5-3.5

Vietnam

5.2

5.0

6.0-6.5

The economies of ASEAN countries mostly grew, with the exception of Singapore and Vietnam, mainly due to the easing of restrictions and containment measures and the surge in commodity prices. ASEAN governments have forecast further expansions of their economies in 2022, although the numbers may be revised due to challenges and risks.